Home Run! Struck him out! (and Walks)
Post date: Sep 14, 2017 10:22:00 PM
The Aaron Judge story is among the most notable of the 2017 MLB season. Judge jumped on the national stage after winning the home run derby just prior to his appearance in the All-Star Game. He is the 2017 American League Rookie of the Year, and he was in the running for the 2017 American League Most Valuable Player award. His performance carried the Yankees to the American League Division Series. But this isn’t the Aaron Judge story I want to tell. The other Aaron Judge story is about a trend in how hitters approach hitting. Judge and others approach hitting with the goal of three unique outcomes from each plate appearance – a home run, a walk or a strikeout. Judge ended his remarkable rookie season second in the majors in home runs (52) and walks (127), and first in strike outs (208).
Home runs, walks, and strikeouts make up what baseball analysts call the three true outcomes. For Judge, these three outcomes together made up over 57% of his 678 plate appearances. That season rate puts him among an elite group of hitters that includes Barry Bonds, Mark McGuire, and Jim Thome.
What makes Judge’s approach even more notable is that the trend towards three outcomes appears to be happening across all of major league baseball. Judge’s 2017 performance will go down as one of the most remarkable in MLB history, but the trend is the truly notable story.
A Trend Towards Three Outcomes Baseball