Three Outcomes Specialists Over Time
Post date: Sep 14, 2017 10:27:21 PM
There have been 204 player seasons with a three outcomes rate of 49% or higher. Figure 2 looks at the number of three outcomes players in each season since 1913.
Figure 2. Players with at least 49% three outcomes rate by season (1913-2017)
Three outcomes hitters have always been around, but before 1960 there usually wasn’t a single player who crossed the 49% threshold. After 1960, most years had at least one player cross the threshold, but never more than five in one season. In the 2000s, things change, and most seasons include more than five players crossing the threshold. In 2012 there were 10 players crossing the threshold; 16 in 2016; 20 in 2017. It is worth pointing out that those 20 players in 2017 still only account for 5% of all players. But there is a clear trend, and the trend follows the average increases in three outcomes rates. It seems clear that players are pursuing and teams are tolerating an approach to hitting that includes extreme rates of the three outcomes.
One year can be a fluke, and most of these 204 occurrences are players who passed the threshold only one time. Multiple seasons with elite three outcomes rates is perhaps a sign of a specialist. How many seasons make a specialist? Let’s continue with Rob Deer as our model. He had four seasons with a three outcomes rate of 49% or higher. Table 3 list all players with four or more three outcomes seasons in their careers.
Table 3. Most Three Outcome Seasons
These ten players look like our career three outcomes specialists. Together they account for 58 of the 204 occurrences since 1913. Jim Thome and Mark McGwire were dominant hitters during their careers. Russell Branyan is often overlooked in three outcomes discussions due to a platoon role limiting his plate appearances. But I think his consistency as a three outcomes player make him part of this story. Alex Avila and Chris Davis are notable on this list, because they are currently in their fourth consecutive year as three outcomes hitters. If the past is any prediction, they will move up this list in the future. Adam Dunn may be the prototypical three outcomes specialist. A big DH, first basemen type player who never was ambiguous about his approach to hitting.
Most of these specialists have ben playing in the modern era, late 1990s to today. McGwire and Deer had overlapping careers in the mid-1980s into the 1990s. Dave Nicholson is perhaps the most unusual name on this list for having played baseball in the 1960s. Table 4 shows Nicholson’s three outcomes statistics, including the season context.
Table 4. Dave Nicholson, Three Outcomes Pioneer
The statistical resemblance of Nicholson, or ‘Big Nick’ as he was known, to Rob Deer is clear. He often had a three outcomes rate double the league average and his z-score in seasons with over 100 plate appearances is never below 2.4 (peaking at 4.95). Rob Deer had a longer career, but Nicholson’s career three outcomes rate tops Deer at 51%. There was never any doubt that Nicholson had power. Scott Thompson over at Lauren’s County Sports History has well documented his home run production in the minor leagues. Reaching the majors, and playing for the White Sox, Nicholson hit a towering home run that purportedly traveled 573 feet at Comiskey Park. There is some debate about whether or not this hit cleared or bounced off the roof, but there is no debate that it was massive. The descriptions are reminiscent of exclamations today that describe towering home runs. And similar to the three outcomes hitters today, Nicholson was known for his strikeouts. A constant in his career, his susceptibility to strikeouts peaked in 1963 when he set the American League record for the most strikeouts in one season with 175. The record stood until Adam Dunn broke that record in 2011. Taking nothing away from Deer, perhaps Nicholson is the true forerunner of today’s three outcomes hitter.
A Trend Towards Three Outcomes Baseball