Three outcomes specialists
Post date: Sep 14, 2017 10:26:07 PM
Interest in three outcomes baseball is relatively new. It first came to prominence among baseball analysts who found the fielding independent qualities of these outcomes useful for evaluating players. Fielding independent outcomes are closer to an experimental situation – many key confounding factors in evaluating talent are removed from the equation. A triple, for instance, is a result of hitting ability, speed, opposing defensive ability, and a little luck. A home run boils down to hitting ability and power. Voros McCraken was the first amateur baseball analyst to recognize the value of these unique outcomes. From them, he developed approaches to evaluate pitching in particular. It was a game changing discovery for baseball analysis. Since McCraken’s contribution, fielding independent measures of pitching and batting have flourished among baseball analysts. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), for instance, is a mainstay at your favorite baseball analysis webpage, and in any season you can probably find a story about the top three outcome hitters.
Three Outcomes Specialists in 2017
While the three outcomes have analytic value, the three outcomes hitter has really been more of a novelty for the baseball geek. Filtering through data looking for three outcomes gems is a lot of fun. Table 1 uses 49% as a threshold of three outcome plate appearances as a guide to rank the top three outcomes hitters of the 2017 season.
Table 1. 2017 Three Outcomes Hitters
Most are hitters follow the classic model of the three outcomes hitter. These are power hitters who strive for home runs and walks and are willing to tolerate strikeouts in the process. That list includes many of the unique player stories of the year. Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo are stand out rookies, with Judge making a run for the MVP. Miguel Sano was an All-Star and helped lead the Twins to a bounce back year and a wildcard spot. Eric Thames was a surprise story of the year, returning from a year in Japan and sparking the Brewers to an early lead in the National League Central.
How unusual are these hitters compared to other MLB players? In 2017 the average rate of three outcomes was at 33% - the highest in major league history. Table 1 includes a comparison to the league average using z-scores. Z-scores measure the distance from the average in standard deviations, which allows for easy comparisons across season contexts. A z-score over 1.60 would indicate an elite level for any particular outcome. The hitters on this list are all above 1.80, and in the top 3-4% of all major league players. As z-scores increase, we get a sense of just how unusual the top rates of Joey Gallo and Aaron Judge really are even when compared with elite three outcomes players like Jake Marisnick.
Table 1 also shows that strikeout rates are driving these rates. All the players on this list have above average strike out rates; all but Matt Olson are above 30%. These high strikeout rates are perhaps the aspect of the three outcomes hitter that makes them most unique. I’ve highlighted the four hitters who are at or below average in home run and walk rates. None of the highlighted players fit the typical three outcomes hitter model. They make the list primarily because of their strikeout rates.
1986 Three Outcomes Specialists
For some perspective, let’s look back at the 1986 major league season. The Toronto Blue Jays’ Jesse Barfield had the most home runs that year with 40. Mike Schmidt hit 37 for the Philadelphia Phillies, and won the National League Most Valuable Player (MVP) award. Ricky Henderson stole 87 bases as a Yankee. Perhaps the most memorable event of the 1986 season was the Mets winning the World Series and the infamous Game 6. The Sox lead the series three games to two, and with a two run lead and two outs in the bottom of the tenth inning the Red Sox seemed poised to win their first World Series since 1918. Roger Clemens helped bring the Red Sox to the World Series that year, winning both the American League MVP award and the AL Cy Young award. Wade Bogs won the AL batting title that year, and Jim Rice hit 20 home runs and knocked in 110 runs. The Mets were also having a remarkable season lead by Keith Hernandez, Gary Carter, Daryl Strawberry and Dwight Gooden. Of course, Game 6 ended with the Red Sox first baseman Bill Buckner missing what looked like an easy slow rolling ground ball hit right at him. It was a moment that Buckner and Red Sox fans could not easily forget. The Mets won that game, and went on to win Game 7. It was the last time the Mets won the World Series.
In 1986 there was only one player who had a three outcomes rate above 49% - the Brewers outfielder Rob Deer. He hit 33 home runs while playing outfield for the Milwaukie Brewers – tied with Jose Canseco for fifth most in the majors. Deer also had the other typical attributes of a three outcomes specialist. He had the second most strikeouts with 179, and his 72 walks put him in the top 30. What made Deer unusual in 1986 was his ability to combine high rates of all three of these outcomes. His three outcomes rate of 52% would have put him among the top ten specialists in 2017. The average rate in 1986 was 26%, giving Deer a z-score of 3.44 standard deviations above the average. This shows just how unusual a hitter he was in his time.
According to Baseball Prospectus, attention to the three outcome hitter started as a tribute to Rob Deer who exemplified this approach to hitting. Table 2 examines Deer’s three outcomes statistics for his 10+ year career from 1984-1996. His career three outcomes rate was 49% (the threshold I’ve used to find three outcomes specialists). In many years, over 50% of his plate appearances resulted in one of the three outcomes. These would be notable rates in today’s context of three outcomes baseball, but Deer was playing in the late 80s and early 90s when three outcomes rates were low on average. Given the context he was playing in, his consistent three outcome performances are even more notable.
Table 1. Rob Deer, Three Outcomes Pioneer
Table 1 includes z-scores for comparison to the league context in seasons when Deer had at least 100 plate appearances, showing just how unusual he was in his time. In four years his three outcomes rate was over 50%, and in three years he doubled the major leagues average rate of three outcomes. His z-score was always above 2 and one year above 4. We can see why Rob Deer’s rate of the three outcomes caught the attention of analysts. Baseball Prospectus still gives a Rob Deer award to the player with the highest three outcomes percentage.
Deer stands out in each component as well. He never lead the league in home runs, but he was often in the top 10 and about 2% of his plate appearances resulted in home runs during his career. His walk rates were typically around 9%. His strike out rates were notorious at the time. He led the majors in strikeouts 4 times (1987, 1988, 1991, 1993) and set the record for strikeouts in a season in 1987. Deer wasn’t the first three outcomes hitter, but he stands out for his commitment to an approach not popular among most hitters at the time. Next up, we can look at the distribution of three outcomes players over time.
A Trend Towards Three Outcomes Baseball